The Economist. Not so popular.

Not so popular

The opposition is less loved than it should be, given the parlous economy

Apr 15th 2010 | MADRID | From The Economist print edition

Rajoy, in need of good cheer

THE economy has stalled. One in five workers is jobless. The Socialist government of José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero is pilloried for its slow reactions. So why are Spaniards not switching in droves to the opposition People’s Party (PP)? Recent polls give the PP a lead of between four and six points. That is not enough to win back the absolute majority the party lost in 2004, when Mr Zapatero came to power.

There are two reasons for Spaniards’ scepticism towards the PP. One is corruption. Two court cases point to its existence even at quite senior levels. “It is clear that Mr Matas is among us to mock mere mortals,” a magistrate said of Jaume Matas, once a PP minister and a former president of the Balearic Islands government, as he set bail on March 30th. Mr Matas who is being investigated over allegations that money went missing from a public contract to build a cycling stadium in Mallorca, has resigned, temporarily, from the PP. So has Luis Bárcenas, the party treasurer, who is under investigation in a different case.

Both men protest their innocence. But Spaniards see the PP as tolerant of misbehavers. There has been no illegal party funding, just a few people who have broken the law, said the party leader, Mariano Rajoy. Officials from all of Spain’s big parties are being investigated for corruption, but the PP cases reveal a taste for ostentatious luxury. Fast cars, sharp suits and Cartier watches look bad in a recession. Both cases may drag on, with ever more revelations, until the 2012 election.

The second reason for voters’ doubts is Mr Rajoy himself. Pleasant, but bland, his popularity lags behind Mr Zapatero’s. Almost two-thirds of Spaniards see him as weak on corruption. Only one in five approves of the way he leads the party. He has already led the PP to two election defeats. A former property registrar from Galicia, Mr Rajoy shares Galicians’ legendary ability to disguise his intentions. An appreciable majority of Spaniards tell pollsters he has no clear plans for the future.

Yet behind Mr Rajoy’s affable exterior is a clear-headed strategist and a proven survivor. His toughest battles have been within the PP. Early on as opposition leader he faced down others. The corruption scandals, none of which involve Mr Rajoy, may have strengthened his hand. Potential rivals, including the regional presidents of Madrid and Valencia, Esperanza Aguirre and Francisco Camps, are too busy limiting local damage to plot against him. And Mr Rajoy has also toned down his anti-Zapatero rhetoric. No longer does the PP bang on about the government tearing Spain apart, selling out to Basque terrorists or destroying the family.

Instead, highlighting the poor state of the economy may be enough. Deficit-cutting and labour-market reform would be priorities for a PP government. The party’s economic strategists predict only a small recovery in tax revenues. A housing bubble that burst in 2008 means many households cannot easily increase their taxable spending. That makes cuts in public spending more urgent, they say. The next election is two years off. The less Mr Zapatero does about the economy, the more disenchanted voters may become. People believe the right manages the economy better, says Luis Arroyo, a political consultant. In theory, Mr Rajoy should still win. But Mr Zapatero is also a skilled political operator. The PP should watch out for surprises.